The Donald insists that if he is not made the nominee at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, “There will be riots, riots.”  This blog post is not about arguing whether or not The Donald is inciting violence, that is another discussion that has the burden of legal proof.  This is the MATH conversation so you can see how the GOP could end up with a contested, and/or brokered convention.

Keep your eyes on Kasich.  Yes, that John Kasich. With Kasich in the race peeling off a few delegates here and there, Trump will likely end up in Cleveland at least 100 delegates short of the promised land –  1,237 delegates – and that means the Republican convention this July will convene without a nominee.

After Super Tuesday II (March 15, 2016) Trump has secured 673 delegates, Cruz has 411, Ohio Governor John Kasich 143 and Rubio, while out of the race for now, has 168.  As of Tuesday, 60% of the delegates have been awarded. Trump has won about 47 per cent of them so far.  In order to hit the magic number 1,237 Trump has to win 60% of the remaining delegates and in a three-man race that is not likely.

Cruz and Trump would both love a two-man race, even though in that scenario Cruz would need a win in both Arizona next week and Wisconsin on April 5^th, but John Kasich is the one who decides that question. As long as Kasich stays in the race, it is doubtful that any man will arrive in Cleveland as the GOP nominee.  That means the GOP will have a contested convention. The delegates in Cleveland will cast ballots. If none of the candidates reach 1,237 the convention becomes “brokered.” Trump, Cruz and Kasich will try to pick off some of the voters, including the Rubio delegates who might arrive in Cleveland “unbound,” if Rubio decides to release them and their states allow it.  Right now about 90 of Rubio’s delegates are free and the scramble for them is on.  God only knows what they will be promised, if anything.

The rest has not been decided.  Each convention creates its own rules once it convenes and that has not happened yet.

Trump is betting that his “millions and millions” of sycophants will “riot” if he is denied in Cleveland.  Is he right? One of my Facebook friends doubts it, “Riots would require them to put down their cheap beers long enough to get their obese behinds out of their lazy-boy. But then they will have to sit right back down because their hypertension will cause them to have a head rush.”

For me there’s already been enough violence, but watching the clown car navigate the road to the Big Top Circus in Cleveland is a riot all its own.